Stats: Idol Top 13 - Social Networks

Source: WareSeeker.com

The day after the Top 13 was announced for season 10, American Idol unveiled the social media accounts for each of the contestants, on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace (who uses MySpace anymore? Idol also used MySpace for online auditions).

If anyone remembers, there was a very, very brief time last year at around this point in the competition where the top finalists were allowed an online presence. But that was quickly abolished after they must have realized (and how could you not) that you could find out which singers were popular and which were not. At least, I'm pretty sure that's why they got rid of it.

But they've brought it back this year, supposedly for the rest of the season. I have no idea why they're bringing it back after what they did last year, but now that Nigel Lythgoe is back, maybe he wanted it to return.

But no matter, we can still find out who is popular and who isn't based on how many followers, likes and friends they have. I wrote down the stats for each contestant on each individual social network, and then found the total across all platforms for everyone.

Here are the stats for the combined followers/likes/friends on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace:
[Note: I compiled these stats on 3/6/11 at 11:30am. The numbers will obviously change over time and will not reflect what they show now.]

1. Scotty McCreery - 23,920
2. Paul McDonald - 13,377
3. Lauren Alaina - 11,901
4. Casey Abrams - 11,494
5. James Durbin - 11,428
6. Thia Megia - 11,032
7. Pia Toscano - 9003
8. Stefano Langone - 9000
9. Jacob Lusk - 7373
10. Karen Rodriguez - 5892
11. Naima Adedapo - 5343
12. Haley Reinhart - 5193
13. Ashthon Jones - 3910

Source: @SMcCreeryAI10

What surprises me the most is that Scotty McCreery has the top spot (and not just the total top spot, but when you look at the stats of the three networks individually, Scotty is ahead on each one). And not only that, but he has a huge majority. I know that Scotty is popular, but I didn't realize it would be at such an advantage. Now, that doesn't mean he's the frontrunner and will win. While I'm not a fan of his yet, I am trying to look at this logically. And I don't see how he can win, unless he can really break out from the pack over the course of the next several weeks.

Regardless of the order, the top five or six doesn't really surprise me: Scotty, Paul, Lauren, Casey, James and Thia. Overall, this top group does seem to be more talented than the rest that make up the bottom group.

Source: @AJonesAI10

Now that we've looked at who took the top spot, let's look at who is at the bottom of the pack: Ashthon Jones. I mentioned that Scotty is number one on all three networks and not just with the overall total. The same (but at the opposite end) holds true for Ashthon. She is last on Twitter, last on Facebook and last on MySpace as well. While she is talented and deserved a spot in the Top 13, I will explain my reasoning for her position below.

Rounding out the bottom 3 with Ashthon is Haley Reinhart (#12) and Naima Adedapo (#11). Except for one spot, I see a connection between who ranks in the bottom three here and who the judges selected for their Wild Card picks. Both Ashthon and Naima were chosen by the judges. Since America did not vote them in, I am not surprised that they ended up at the bottom.

Haley, who is positioned between those two but not a Judge's pick, has a legitimate reason for being there. I was surprised when America voted Haley into the Top 10; I'm thinking that she barely made it in. Of the contestants that we voted on, Haley may be the weakest and most forgettable.

Will these three be our bottom 3 on this week's results show? Maybe, maybe not. I think that Haley very well could, but with Ashthon and Naima, it all depends on how well they perform this week. Now that I know how everybody ranks online, I'm looking forward to seeing how it compares to the bottom 3 on the show, and how much overlap there might be. If there's a lot of overlap, then we may be able to gauge who's going home by how many followers they have online. If that's the case, what if Idol picks up on that and decides to cancel the accounts? Wouldn't that be interesting?

But what about the third Wild Card pick, Stefano? He ranks in the middle. He has a decent voice and may be around for at least a little while because the girls will vote for him, no matter how he might do. And I think that is why he's not near the bottom of the social network list.

While I'm not giving a guarantee, my hope is to do this every weekend after another person is voted out and track the changes in followers as the competition gets smaller and smaller. Whenever someone is voted out, many times I look at who their fans might draw to next. It could be an indication of staying power...or not. That's how I believe Kris Allen won in season 8. He and Danny Gokey held a similar fan base. When Danny came in third, his votes went to Kris, who then...well, we know the tragedy that unfolded next. Will the same sort of situation happen online this year? After someone is voted out, will we see any drastic changes in the stats with anybody? That's what I'm curious to see, and want to track every week.

If you want to follow any of the Top 13 contestants, click HERE for all the links. By the way, I am currently following Lauren, Casey and James (on my personal Twitter and Facebook accounts). Speaking of twitter, you can follow TV Watch Online HERE; T.W.O. does not currently have a Facebook page.

Remember, every week here on the T.W.O. BLOG I give my recap and commentary on each episode of American Idol in a segment called Idol-Talk. And on the weekends (at least for the time being), I post a new scorecard for the following week's performances.