Oscars: My Predictions vs. Winners

Last night, ABC aired the 84th Annual Academy Awards. And out of the 24 categories in which awards were handed out, I only missed six. So I got 75% correct predictions this time around (pretty much the same as the Golden Globes and only a few lower than last year's Oscars).

Below are the list of winners along with my predictions:

Best Picture:
The Artist
My Prediction:
The Artist (+)

Best Actor:
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
My Prediction:
George Clooney, The Descendants (-)

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
My Prediction:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (+)

Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
My Prediction:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (+)

Best Supporting Actress:
Octavia Spencer, The Help
My Prediction:
Octavia Spencer, The Help (+)

Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
My Prediction:
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (+)

Best Foreign Language Film:
A Separation
My Prediction:
A Separation (+)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Descendants
My Prediction:
The Descendants (+)

Best Original Screenplay:
Midnight in Paris
My Prediction:
Midnight in Paris (+)

Best Animated Film:
Rango
My Prediction:
Rango (+)

Best Art Direction:
Hugo
My Prediction:
Hugo (+)

Best Cinematography:
Hugo
My Prediction:
The Tree of Life (-)

Best Sound Mixing:
Hugo
My Prediction:
Hugo (+)

Best Sound Editing:
Hugo
My Prediction:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (-)

Best Original Score:
The Artist
My Prediction:
The Artist (+)

Best Original Song:
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets
My Prediction:
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets (+)

Best Costume Design:
The Artist
My Prediction:
The Artist (+)

Best Documentary:
Undefeated
My Prediction:
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (-)

Best Documentary Short:
Saving Face
My Prediction:
Saving Face (+)

Best Editing:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
My Prediction:
The Artist (-)

Best Makeup:
The Iron Lady
My Prediction:
The Iron Lady (+)

Best Animated Short:
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
My Prediction:
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (+)

Best Live Action Short:
The Shore
My Prediction:
The Shore (+)

Best Visual Effects:
Hugo
My Prediction:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (-)

You can view the full list of nominees, winners, and my predictions on T.W.O.'s Oscars page.

T.W.O: Oscars 2012 Predictions

Sunday night is the 84th Annual Academy Awards, beginning at 8:30pm ET/5:30pm PT on ABC. As usual, I have made my predictions on who will win in each of the 24 categories. Below are my predictions, and check out T.W.O.'s Oscars page for a full list of all the nominees. So, without further ado, here are T.W.O.'s 2012 Oscar predictions:

Source: gaelick.com

Best Picture:
The Artist

Best Actor:
George Clooney, The Descendants

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress:
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Foreign Language Film:
A Separation

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay:
Midnight in Paris

Best Animated Film:
Rango

Best Art Direction:
Hugo

Best Cinematography:
The Tree of Life

Best Sound Mixing:
Hugo

Best Sound Editing:
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Original Score:
The Artist

Best Original Song:
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets

Best Costume Design:
The Artist

Best Documentary:
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Best Documentary Short:
Saving Face

Best Editing:
The Artist

Best Makeup:
The Iron Lady

Best Animated Short:
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Best Live Action Short:
The Shore

Best Visual Effects:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Oscars: My Predictions vs. Winners

The 83rd Annual Academy Awards were held this past Sunday, and I seem to be on a bit of a roll lately.  First, I only miss four categories at the Golden Globes last month (84% correct).  And surprisingly, that success rolled over to this week, when I only missed five, resulting in 79% correct.

Here's the list of winners along with my predictions:

Best Picture:
The King's Speech
My Prediction:
The Social Network (-)

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
My Prediction:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech (+)

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
My Prediction:
Christian Bale, The Fighter (+)

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
My Prediction:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan (+)

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
My Prediction:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter (+)

Best Animated Film:
Toy Story 3
My Prediction:
Toy Story 3 (+)

Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland
My Prediction:
Alice in Wonderland (+)

Best Cinematography:
Inception
My Prediction:
True Grit (-)

Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland
My Prediction:
Alice in Wonderland (+)

Best Director:
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
My Prediction:
David Fincher, The Social Network (-)

Best Documentary:
Inside Job
My Prediction:
Inside Job (+)

Best Documentary Short:
Strangers No More
My Prediction:
Strangers No More (+)

Best Editing:
The Social Network
My Prediction:
The Social Network (+)

Best Foreign Language Film:
In a Better World (Denmark)
My Prediction:
In a Better World (Denmark) (+)

Best Makeup:
The Wolfman
My Prediction:
The Wolfman (+)

Best Score:
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
My Prediction:
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross (+)

Best Song:
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
My Prediction:
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3 (+)

Best Animated Short:
The Lost Thing
My Prediction:
Day & Night (-)

Best Live-Action Short:
God of Love
My Prediction:
Na Wewe (-)

Best Sound Editing:
Inception
My Prediction:
Inception (+)

Best Sound Mixing:
Inception
My Prediction:
Inception (+)

Best Visual Effects:
Inception
My Prediction:
Inception (+)

Best Original Screenplay:
The King's Speech, David Seidler
My Prediction:
The King's Speech, David Seidler (+)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin
My Prediction:
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin (+)

I got 19 of the 24 categories correct, missing only five (79% correct).

I was trying to think of why I'm doing better this year with my predictions.  And while I always have looked at what others are saying, I have done a lot more research this year, not only looking at what other websites are predicting, but thinking about what is in each film that could warrant a win, watching clips from some of the smaller categories (Best Animated Short, Best Live-Action Short), reading summaries of the documentaries, and listening to the nominated songs.  I usually do a lot of that already, but I focused more and analyzed the environment closer than I may usually have done. Next stop - the Emmy's!

You can view the full list of nominees, winners, and my predictions on T.W.O.'s Oscars page.

T.W.O: Oscar Predictions

Tonight ABC will air the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, beginning at 8:30pm ET/5:30pm PT. Last night, I finalized my Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. Below are my predictions, and check out T.W.O.'s Oscars page for a full list of all the nominees.

Source: gaelick.com

T.W.O.'s Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture:
The Social Network

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Best Animated Film:
Toy Story 3

Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland

Best Cinematography:
True Grit

Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Documentary:
Inside Job

Best Documentary Short:
Strangers No More

Best Editing:
The Social Network

Best Foreign Language Film:
In a Better World (Denmark)

Best Makeup:
The Wolfman

Best Score:
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

Best Song:
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3

Best Animated Short:
Day & Night

Best Live-Action Short:
Na Wewe

Best Sound Editing:
Inception

Best Sound Mixing:
Inception

Best Visual Effects:
Inception

Best Original Screenplay:
The King's Speech, David Seidler

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin

I decided to do a little research into the Best Picture category and see which of this year's nominated films has the best chance to win. For this research, I looked at the Golden Globe Best Picture (Drama and Musical/Comedy) winners and Oscar Best Picture winners of the last ten years (2001-2010). Exactly half of the Oscar winners also won in the same category for the Golden Globes. The reason why I did this was because I wanted to see if The Social Network had a chance of winning, since it won the Globe last month. Even though momentum at the moment is with The King's Speech, based on recent history, Network has a 50% chance of winning.

Next, I focused exclusively on the Oscar winners; more specifically, I looked at the content and topics of these films; again, this was to see which could come out on top between The Social Network and The King's Speech. The Academy tends to prefer movies along the lines of Speech, which everyone is predicting will win (besides the fact that it also won some important awards recently).

For the most part, I do base my prediction decisions on who has the best chance at winning, though once in a while my personal picks override it. Last year, I chose Avatar over The Hurt Locker for Best Picture, even though it was pretty obvious that the Academy would prefer the Iraq war film over the mega blockbuster.

If I was being smart here, I would obviously choose Speech. However, my personal pick is once again overriding it. It's probably because, of the two, I've only seen Network. If this was a perfect world, the race would be between Network and Toy Story 3 (the two best movies of 2010), but that's not feasible when you look at what the voting members go for. So, while my Best Picture prediction isn't exactly logical, I'm going to be laughing (well, maybe not; I'll probably be in shock) if Network does indeed win. And if Speech wins, as it most likely will, I'll still be fine with the choice.

At last month's Golden Globe Awards, I got 84% of my predictions correct (only missing four), which I'm sure is the best I have ever done at the three major award shows (Emmys, Globes, Oscars); I usually never get above 50%. I hope my luck there will drag over to tonight's awards and be at least above 50%.

Once the winners have been announced, I will be writing up a follow-up entry comparing my predictions to the eventual winners.