Stats: Idol Top 12 - Social Networks

Source: hubspot.com

Last weekend, I tallied up how many total followers each of the Top 13 Idols had on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace. And now that we have had our first elimination, I've gone back through their social media pages to see if there were any changes in the lineup. And the answer is yes. But before I get into any specifics, below is the updated social media stats for the Top 12.

[Note: I compiled these stats on 3/13/11 at 11am. The numbers will obviously change over time and will not reflect what they show now]

1. Scotty McCreery - 48,580
2. Casey Abrams - 32,402
3. Paul McDonald - 28,691
4. James Durbin - 25,283
5. Lauren Alaina - 24,089
6. Thia Megia - 23,671
7. Pia Toscano - 22,469
8. Stefano Langone - 18,594
9. Jacob Lusk - 14,058
10. Karen Rodriguez - 12,375
11. Naima Adedapo - 11,543
12. Haley Reinhart - 10,865

Eliminated:
13. Ashthon Jones - 7237

To see last week's stats, click HERE.

Scotty McCreery still retains the top spot by a wide margin, though he is no longer number one on twitter (that title goes to Casey).

The names in blue above are what I want to focus on first. Both last week and this week, Casey, Paul, James and Lauren were in spots 2-5, but this time they have switched order. Casey has made a significant leap up from fourth to second. I'm wondering if his returning illness caused more people to follow him.

The four names I just mentioned are the only ones out of everyone to move positions. What's really interesting to see here is that the sixth through twelfth place names are in the exact same order as last week. I found that to be fascinating. Now this really makes me want to continue following these stats to see any possible changes.

Last time, I speculated if the number of followers everyone has would give us a hint of who's going home. Of our first bottom 3 of the season, all three were somewhere in the bottom four on the social media list, two of whom were at the very bottom. Ashthon Jones had the least number of followers and was eliminated. Haley Reinhart now has the least number of followers (when you take Ashthon out of the picture). Since she also was in the bottom 3, it looks like there a very good possibility that Haley may be the next to depart.

On a final note, it will be interesting to see how long Naima Adedapo lasts. She is second to last after Haley now. She has stood out more as a performer than a singer and was chosen by the judges and not America. Performing last certainly helped her, but will she be at a disadvantage again when she performs near the start or middle of the show?

If you want to follow any of the Top 13 contestants, click HERE.

Idol-Talk: Season 10 Top 13

American Idol 10: Top 13
Air Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2011 [8-10pm]

Theme: Songs from Your Musical Idols

Source: mjsbigblog.com

The grand entrance staircase is back, and Ryan is the one to make that grand entrance.

In-House Mentor Jimmy Iovine and some big-time producers are now working with the contestants. A producer is assigned to each singer. I wonder if they will have the same producer week in and week out or will there be a new one every time.

After coming back from commercial breaks, they showed some of the backstage reaction by the singers. They tried this for about a week a year or two ago; why did they bring it back? To fill up time? I actually don't mind seeing those videos.

In interviews and earlier episodes, Randy kept saying that this year is "Season 10 the remix." And he brought that phrase back last night. Is anyone else annoyed by this broken-record?

Before I get to my commentary, I just wanted to say that you can click on each of the below links to open up those studio recordings on iTunes. You will not be charged for clicking on these links, unless you click 'buy' on iTunes.

1. Lauren Alaina - Shania Twain's "Any Man of Mine"
It would have been hard for her to beat last week's performance. But even so, I felt letdown this time. With this song, I hope her young age doesn't start (or continue) affecting her song choices. Her voice, while nothing really wrong, didn't stand out against the original.

2. Casey Abrams - The Beatles' "With a Little Help From My Friends"
It's no surprise that Joe Cocker is his Idol. And now that his health seems well, I could hear an improvement in his voice. He should certainly continue with this vibe, because he could continue to do well with it. I might buy this on iTunes.

3. Ashthon Jones - Diana Ross' "When You Tell Me That You Love Me"
I found this to be a very bland performance. She started off on the wrong notes to begin with, which continued throughout the first half. We got to see the voice that we love later on, but by that point it was too late.

4. Paul McDonald - Ryan Adams' "Come Pick Me Up"
In hindsight, I think I was too tough on him last week. So I was going to try to be more open-minded this time. Unfortunately, though, he didn't bring it. The start with the soft notes didn't sound right, and there were pitch problems.

5. Pia Toscano - Celine Dion's "All By Myself"
For the second week in a row, she has picked songs that are not only so well-known, but are in some respects similar in nature to each other. She's definitely a balladeer, but I hope she doesn't rely too heavily on that because I want to see what else she can do. On a positive note - her voice sounded better than last week.

6. James Durbin - Paul McCartney's "Maybe I'm Amazed"
After covering such a rock-heavy song last time, I was a little surprised by this choice, but it 100% worked. A few off notes, but overall, he is proving to be very versatile. Great song choice - Another one I might buy on iTunes.

7. Haley Reinhart - LeAnn Rimes' "Blue"
From Alicia Keys last week to LeAnn Rimes this week, it's obvious she doesn't know who she is as an artist. She needs some better focus in that area. On the good side - the yodel-like part was really well done and her voice was better, but I was bored the whole time.

8. Jacob Lusk - R. Kelly's "I Believe I Can Fly"
Why oh why did he have to sing one of the safest songs ever to cover? He has a sort of warble to his voice that I'm not a fan of. What saved him, though, was the brilliant high note run near the end, because it it weren't for that, this wouldn't have stood out as much.

9. Thia Megia - Michael Jackson's "Smile"
The more intimate beginning was definitely the best part. But partway through, the beat and arrangement changed completely and threw off the entire vibe and brought the performance down. If her producer suggested that, maybe she needs a new one.

10. Stefano Langone - Stevie Wonder's "Lately"
This was a little strange for me. He tried to make his voice sound differently at the start, but it didn't work. By the end, though, he got his voice back on track and saved himself. The worst part was the backtrack; the beat did not fit the song or his voice at all.

11. Karen Rodriguez - Selina's "I Could Fall in Love"
A few people tonight are picking songs that are too big for them. This was one of them; the song swallowed her up. She couldn't hit any of the low notes, sounding flat. And the high note was sharp.

12. Scotty McCreery - Garth Brooks' "The River"
Like with Paul, I decided to be more open-minded this time around. He has a great voice and the song obviously fit him perfectly. But regardless of his signature low voice, I hope he can sing a song where I can just listen and go - that's a Scotty McCreery song, because I'm still not completely getting why he has the top social media spot of the Top 13.

13. Naima Adedapo - Rihanna's "Umbrella"
She has such a great style about her, which livens up the competition. But she didn't have control of her voice, and I didn't like the rapping. The dancing didn't help the voice either. Overall, not my favorite, but this might be a great studio recording.

Compilation Album - American Idol Top 13 Season 10: Click on this link see compilation album on iTunes of all of the above songs.

Favorite Performances: James Durbin / Casey Abrams

My Votes: James Durbin - 30 votes

Bottom 3 Predictions: Ashthon Jones / Haley Reinhart / Karen Rodriguez

Elimination Prediction: Ashthon Jones

It was pretty easy this week to pick who's going home tonight. Ashthon was among the three weakest singers of the night. Even if someone else is cut, there's no doubt that she will at least be in the Bottom 3. Speaking of which, who will join her there? It also seems obvious that Haley and Karen should be there as well. But if any of them aren't, there's always the chance that Lauren Alaina may sneak in (she sang first and disappointed), or even Paul McDonald, though these two have pretty big fan bases so there's less of a chance.

Getting back to Ashthon for a moment. She has the least amount of social media followers, as you can see in my analysis last weekend. So that's more evidence of her early demise.

Tonight, we're back to the one-hour results show (8-9pm). Diddy-Dirty Money will perform. And Adam Lambert will return to the Idol stage to I'm sure blow us away with an acoustic version of his song, "Aftermath."

Stats: Idol Top 13 - Social Networks

Source: WareSeeker.com

The day after the Top 13 was announced for season 10, American Idol unveiled the social media accounts for each of the contestants, on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace (who uses MySpace anymore? Idol also used MySpace for online auditions).

If anyone remembers, there was a very, very brief time last year at around this point in the competition where the top finalists were allowed an online presence. But that was quickly abolished after they must have realized (and how could you not) that you could find out which singers were popular and which were not. At least, I'm pretty sure that's why they got rid of it.

But they've brought it back this year, supposedly for the rest of the season. I have no idea why they're bringing it back after what they did last year, but now that Nigel Lythgoe is back, maybe he wanted it to return.

But no matter, we can still find out who is popular and who isn't based on how many followers, likes and friends they have. I wrote down the stats for each contestant on each individual social network, and then found the total across all platforms for everyone.

Here are the stats for the combined followers/likes/friends on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace:
[Note: I compiled these stats on 3/6/11 at 11:30am. The numbers will obviously change over time and will not reflect what they show now.]

1. Scotty McCreery - 23,920
2. Paul McDonald - 13,377
3. Lauren Alaina - 11,901
4. Casey Abrams - 11,494
5. James Durbin - 11,428
6. Thia Megia - 11,032
7. Pia Toscano - 9003
8. Stefano Langone - 9000
9. Jacob Lusk - 7373
10. Karen Rodriguez - 5892
11. Naima Adedapo - 5343
12. Haley Reinhart - 5193
13. Ashthon Jones - 3910

Source: @SMcCreeryAI10

What surprises me the most is that Scotty McCreery has the top spot (and not just the total top spot, but when you look at the stats of the three networks individually, Scotty is ahead on each one). And not only that, but he has a huge majority. I know that Scotty is popular, but I didn't realize it would be at such an advantage. Now, that doesn't mean he's the frontrunner and will win. While I'm not a fan of his yet, I am trying to look at this logically. And I don't see how he can win, unless he can really break out from the pack over the course of the next several weeks.

Regardless of the order, the top five or six doesn't really surprise me: Scotty, Paul, Lauren, Casey, James and Thia. Overall, this top group does seem to be more talented than the rest that make up the bottom group.

Source: @AJonesAI10

Now that we've looked at who took the top spot, let's look at who is at the bottom of the pack: Ashthon Jones. I mentioned that Scotty is number one on all three networks and not just with the overall total. The same (but at the opposite end) holds true for Ashthon. She is last on Twitter, last on Facebook and last on MySpace as well. While she is talented and deserved a spot in the Top 13, I will explain my reasoning for her position below.

Rounding out the bottom 3 with Ashthon is Haley Reinhart (#12) and Naima Adedapo (#11). Except for one spot, I see a connection between who ranks in the bottom three here and who the judges selected for their Wild Card picks. Both Ashthon and Naima were chosen by the judges. Since America did not vote them in, I am not surprised that they ended up at the bottom.

Haley, who is positioned between those two but not a Judge's pick, has a legitimate reason for being there. I was surprised when America voted Haley into the Top 10; I'm thinking that she barely made it in. Of the contestants that we voted on, Haley may be the weakest and most forgettable.

Will these three be our bottom 3 on this week's results show? Maybe, maybe not. I think that Haley very well could, but with Ashthon and Naima, it all depends on how well they perform this week. Now that I know how everybody ranks online, I'm looking forward to seeing how it compares to the bottom 3 on the show, and how much overlap there might be. If there's a lot of overlap, then we may be able to gauge who's going home by how many followers they have online. If that's the case, what if Idol picks up on that and decides to cancel the accounts? Wouldn't that be interesting?

But what about the third Wild Card pick, Stefano? He ranks in the middle. He has a decent voice and may be around for at least a little while because the girls will vote for him, no matter how he might do. And I think that is why he's not near the bottom of the social network list.

While I'm not giving a guarantee, my hope is to do this every weekend after another person is voted out and track the changes in followers as the competition gets smaller and smaller. Whenever someone is voted out, many times I look at who their fans might draw to next. It could be an indication of staying power...or not. That's how I believe Kris Allen won in season 8. He and Danny Gokey held a similar fan base. When Danny came in third, his votes went to Kris, who then...well, we know the tragedy that unfolded next. Will the same sort of situation happen online this year? After someone is voted out, will we see any drastic changes in the stats with anybody? That's what I'm curious to see, and want to track every week.

If you want to follow any of the Top 13 contestants, click HERE for all the links. By the way, I am currently following Lauren, Casey and James (on my personal Twitter and Facebook accounts). Speaking of twitter, you can follow TV Watch Online HERE; T.W.O. does not currently have a Facebook page.

Remember, every week here on the T.W.O. BLOG I give my recap and commentary on each episode of American Idol in a segment called Idol-Talk. And on the weekends (at least for the time being), I post a new scorecard for the following week's performances.

American Idol Scorecard - Top 13

Last week, I added links to scorecards (for the Top 24) I created and use to comment on the American Idol performances.  I have decided to continue putting them online for anyone to download and print for the time being.

IDOL 10: TOP 13

The above link takes you go Google Docs. To make sure the formatting remains in its original form, I suggest clicking on 'File' and 'Download original' to open up the original Word document. You will know the formatting is correct if the headings (Vocal Ability, Song Choice, etc) are on their sides in a vertical fashion.

I have added some new sections to the bottom of the scorecard now that we are in the Top 13. All of the headings are: Theme, My Vote(s), Bottom 3 Prediction, Bottom 3, Elimination Prediction, Eliminated. Last year, I added the 'Bottom 3 Prediction' because I found myself over the course of the season making predictions not just for who would be eliminated, but also for who would end up in the bottom 3 as well.

And as always, there is room to write in each contestants name, song title, comments, and grade them based on their voice, song, personality and stage presence.

Idol-Talk: Season 10 Top 13 Revealed!

American Idol 10: Top 13 Revealed
Air Date: Thursday, March 3, 2011 [8-10pm]

Source: mjsbigblog.com

Since this is a two hour results show, the show starts off immediately with a filler video of dramatic flair. Ryan Seacrest announces that 40 million votes were cast over the course of the two voting nights this week - the highest number of votes the show has seen at this stage in the competition.

More filler: a recap of the guys performing, Ryan chatting with them and a video where the guys are interviewed.

Let's get on with the results:

Scotty McCreery and Robbie Rosen are up first:
Scotty McCreery - Advancing to Top 10 [Correct Prediction: +]
Robbie Rosen - Eliminated (waiting to find out if judges pick him)

Next up: Clint Jun Gamboa, Jordan Dorsey and Jovany Dorsey
All three are eliminated

And now on to the girls: a recap of their performances and a video with interviews and photo shoots.

Pia Toscano and Lauren Alaina are called up first:
Lauren Alaina - Advancing to Top 10 [+]
Pia Toscano - Also Advancing to Top 10 [+]
No surprises there.

Ta-Tynisa Wilson and Julie Zorrilla are the next two girls to face the results:
Both are eliminated.

Another group of three: Kendra Chantelle, Ashthon Jones and Karen Rodriguez
Ashthon Jones - Eliminated
Karen Rodriguez - Advancing to Top 10 [Incorrect Prediction: --]
Kendra Chantelle - Eliminated

And back to the guys: Tim Halperin, Casey Abrams and Jacob Lusk
Jacob Lusk - Advancing to Top 10 [+]
Casey Abrams - Advancing to Top 10 [+]
Tim Halperin - Eliminated
Some more obvious results.

Naima Adedapo, Thia Megia and Lauren Turner:
Naima Adedapo - Eliminated
Thia Megia - Advancing to Top 10 [+]
Lauren Turner - Eliminated

Brett Loewenstern and Paul McDonald:
Paul McDonald - Advancing to Top 10 [+]
Brett Loewenstern - Eliminated
For the most part, these results are becoming too obvious.

Haley Reinhart and Rachel Zevita:
Haley Reinhart - Advancing to Top 10 [--]
Rachel Zevita - Eliminated
While Rachel deserved to be cut, I'm kind of surprised that Haley didn't go as well.

Stefano Langone and James Durbin are the final two to find out their fate:
James Durbin - Advancing to Top 10 [+]
Stefano Langone - Eliminated

Of the fourteen that did not make the Top 10, the judges selected six (three guys and three girls) to perform again for a chance to be the Wild Card picks.

Wild Card Performances:

1. Ashthon Jones - "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going" from Dreamgirls
It's hard to match up to the original, but as a standalone, she rose to the occasion and really belted it out. Her voice was definitely an improvement over Wednesday.

2. Stefano Langone - "I Need You Now"
Again, an improvement over the other day. He put everything he had into it. But it's hard to tell his chances after only two have performed. It all depends on how the rest do.

3. Kendra Chantelle - "Georgia on My Mind"
She started out kind of shaky, leveled out in the middle and went all out at the end. If she makes it, it will be because of the end. But I can't see her standing out from the crowd.

4. Jovany Barreto - "Angel"
On Tuesday, he was forgettable. And while is voice is good (very smooth), I don't know if he's one of the better singers. But I'm liking that some of the contestants are including Spanish in their songs.

5. Naima Adedapo - "For All We Know"
I heard flat notes and pitch problems throughout. She's definitely better than this. She could really liven up the competition if she makes it.

6. Robbie Rosen - "Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word"
I was disappointed by him the other night, but now he stepped it up and provided the best performance of all six.

After the break, Ryan asked if the judges had made a decision. Jennifer Lopez had an anxious look on her face and said no. That whole exchange seemed a complete set-up; I bet they had already made their decisions, because why else would they be all ready to show the music video? And if you looked at what time it was, there was no way they would announce their picks and then show the video, because you want people to tune in to the very last minute.

After the six performed, I made my predictions for who the judges might pick:
Robbie Rosen
Ashthon Jones
Naima Adedapo

Jennifer debuted the music video for her new single, "On the Floor." I may need to listen to it more, but it wasn't one of my favorite songs. There were moments that I liked, though. I wonder if she will ever perform live during the season, and if so, will she actually be singing or lip-syncing?

And finally, the judge's Wild Card picks are announced:
Ashthon Jones (after her name was called, Ryan asked how many more there would be; the judges said two) [+]
Stefano Langone [--]
Naima Adedapo [+]

We have a Top 13!

As Ryan is closing out the show, he gives a shout-out to the new music director, Ray Chew, and we get a camera shot of him. After not even giving Rickey Minor a goodbye of any sorts last year, I'm surprised they actually mentioned Ray.

Next Wednesday, the Top 13 will perform "Songs By Their Favorite Artists" in a two hour show. And Adam Lambert (!) will be performing an acoustic version of "Aftermath" during Thursday's results show; I know I'm jumping the gun a bit here, but I can't wait! See ya then...

Idol-Talk: Season 10 Top 24 (Top 12 Girls)

American Idol 10: Top 24 (Top 12 Girls)
Air Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2011 [8-9:30pm]

Theme: Sing Whatever You Want

Source: Poptower.com

Yesterday, I wondered if this new stage would be used for the rest of the season or just for the semifinals. And, as if he read my question, Ryan Seacrest announced at the top of show Wednesday night that it would indeed be the stage used for the duration of the season.

The guys were up first on Tuesday, and now the girls are up for America's vote.

1. Ta-Tynisa Wilson - Rihanna's "Only Girl (In the World)"
During the start, it felt to me like her voice and the music were not in sync with each other. Throughout, I heard some flat notes, and she wasn't able to pull off the low notes. The song (which was totally the wrong choice) made that apparent.

On a separate note, why is there a dash in her name all of a sudden? I don't remember that being there in earlier rounds.

2. Naima Adedapo - "Summertime"
Why did she have to sing the most iconic song on American Idol (with Fantasia providing what was inarguably the best performance in the history of the show) for her first big performance of the season? There will always be comparisons. She didn't match up, and the vocals weren't perfect. But that doesn't mean this performance was a dud; far from it: She does know how to belt out those power notes.

3. Kendra Chantelle - Christina Aguilera's "Impossible"
To me, she was more in between tonight. I wasn't blown away, but neither was it terrible either. As Randy said, there were some sharp notes. But she ended on a positive note, with the power voice coming through.

4. Rachel Zevita - Fiona Apple's "Criminal"
She should not have made the Top 24, so it's no surprise that she is still terrible and hasn't improved. Her voice was all over the place. She relied more on theatrics, which tried to mask the voice.

5. Karen Rodriguez - Mariah Carey's "Hero"
When I realized what song it was, I thought she shouldn't do such a well known and overdone song for her first time. But what went in her favor was the switch to Spanish. The English parts were just like the original, but the Spanish improved it. Regardless, she has a powerful voice that could take her far.

6. Lauren Turner - Etta James' "Seven Day Fool"
I wasn't liking it at first, because it felt amateurish and the run was all over the place. But she picked it up in the second half, showing more personality and mood. There was some rasp in her voice at one point, which helped the performance, I thought.

7. Ashthon Jones - Monica's "Love Over Me"
I wasn't really that in love with this performance. The song choice wasn't the best for her - the root of my feelings here. There were some great notes at the end, but that can carry over to the whole set with the right song. But she's no doubt talented, and has a chance of moving forward.

8. Julie Zorrilla - Kelly Clarkson's "Breakaway"
She has a weak voice to begin with, and add to that the fact that it's a Kelly Clarkson song - she's a goner. If Kelly's a 100, then Julie's version was a 10. Her voice was flat throughout, and she couldn't project it that loud either.

9. Haley Reinhart - Alicia Keys' "Fallin"
A song like this is almost untouchable, because it's hard to do it justice. She pales in comparison with Alicia Keys. Her voice was a little shaky at times. I don't remember if she was good before, but this is not the way to make it.

10. Thia Megia - "Out Here On My Own" from Fame
She started off a capella, which drew me in right away. I thought at some point the song would pick up more (maybe due to my unfamiliarity with the song), but when it didn't, I was still impressed. She has great control over her voice, knowing when to be restrained.

11. Lauren Alaina - Reba McEntire's "Turn On the Radio"
She started to go downhill a bit the past couple of episodes, but this performance brought her back on top. She fused country with rock effortlessly. During her audition, I was reminded of Kelly Clarkson, and I'm seeing that again. Out of all the audition stops, she was the obvious favorite. And now that she's back on top, my hope is that she can remain excellent while not being too perfect each and every time during these first couple weeks. The reason why I say this is because I don't want her to go the way of Crystal Bowersox. Crystal started out as the favorite, but once she stumbled about halfway through, she was never able to regain ground in the voting, and Lee's improvements cause him to soar past her for the win.

12. Pia Toscano - The Pretenders' "I'll Stand By You"
She was good, but I don't think a standing ovation by the judges was necessary. For most of the song, I didn't hear anything that stood out from other renditions. What saved her, though, was the end, causing the cheers from the audience and judges.

Favorite Performances: Lauren Alaina / Thia Megia

My Votes: Lauren Alaina - 20 votes

Top 10 Predictions (5 will advance):
Lauren Alaina
Thia Megia
Pia Toscano
Naima Adedapo
Ashthon Jones

Lauren, Thia and Pia are the only ones that I believe have a guarantee to get in the Top 10+. After that, it's a little harder to pick two more spots. I ultimately went with Naima and Ashthon, based on my own comments, what the judges said, and audience reaction. But Karen Rodriguez or Lauren Turner may get in as well.

Based on both performance nights, American will vote through five guys and five girls into the finals. Then the judges will have their Wild Card picks. The rumor that's been around for a while is that there will ultimately be a Top 13, with each judge choosing one contestant. If that is the case, I will add a few more names to my prediction lists that may make the Top 10+, whether by America's vote or chosen by the judges. I will just go ahead and put out these names: Robbie Rosen (even though he was just okay this week, he can do better), Karen Rodriguez, and Lauren Turner. Who knows, maybe Brett Loewenstern or Kendra Chantelle or someone else may make it.

Tonight, we have a two hour results show, where we will find out who has made it into the Top 10. Then, the judges will reportedly make their Wild Card picks, though one rumor floating around is that next week will be devoted to the Wild Card. And Jennifer Lopez will debut the music video for her new single, "On the Floor." See ya then...

Idol-Talk: Season 10 Top 24 (Top 12 Boys)

American Idol 10: Top 24 (Top 12 Boys)

Air Date: Tuesday, March 1, 2011 [8-9:30pm]

Theme: Sing Whatever You Want

The semifinals have begun...and are almost over. In years' past, this round has always been around three weeks, but the format has changed as one of the ways to revitalize the show. The top 12 guys performed last night, and the theme was...there was no theme. They could sing whatever they wanted.

This round usually has a smaller stage and audience seating, but they've expanded it all, making it look closer to the regular stage we see for the Top 12. I don't know if this will be the same stage used for the rest of the season or not, because why would they build all of this just for one week? I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Ryan Seacrest gave Steven Tyler a bleep sign that is the American Idol logo on a stick so that he can cover his mouth with it if he's going to swear. I don't think it always worked.

I couldn't get a complete picture of the band arrangement, but I saw at least part of the band on (our) left side of the stage. The other edge of the stage housed the rest of the singers, where they sat and watched all the performances.

Besides the normal phone and text voting, Idol has added online voting at AmericanIdol.com (through Facebook).

1. Clint Jun Gamboa - Stevie Wonder's "Superstition": The first half was just okay, and I thought that would carry throughout, but once he hit the high notes, he pushed his energy fully into the performance and gave it his all.

2. Jovany Barreto - Edwin McCain's "I'll Be": I'm glad Randy Jackson told the truth - It was very karaoke-like. A few seconds in when I realized what song it was, I thought - Uh oh. I was bored for most of the song. Some great notes at the end, but overall very forgettable.

3. Jordan Dorsey - Usher's "OMG":He was in trouble right from the start. I think the first few lines were supposed to be low notes, but he couldn't make them work, so they came out very quiet. With the dancing, he relied too much on sex appeal, which affected his vocals. The song has very stacatto notes, so I couldn't tell anything about his voice from this.

4. Tim Halperin - Rob Thomas' "Streetcorner Symphony (Come On Over)": I might have to remove the karaoke label from Jovany and stick it on Tim, because this performance was the epitome of karaoke. I started to become a fan of his the last couple of episodes or so, but this did nothing to help him. He can do better, but I don't know if he'll be around to do so.

5. Brett Loewenstern - The Doors' "Light My Fire": In earlier rounds, he's had both good performances and some pretty average ones. This one was more on the average side. His voice was off at the start, better at the end. He's been heavily featured, so he has a chance of making it.

6. James Durbin - Judas Priest's "You Got Another Thing Comin'": He's always had comparisons to Adam Lambert, but hasn't matched up to him before now. This rock song could have been his downfall, but I was pleasantly surprised by how well he tackled this song. I wonder if this is the musical route he should take. Also, I'm glad he didn't overdo the high notes.

7. Robbie Rosen - Sarah McLachlan's "Arms of An Angel": He has been my favorite leading up to this week. There were moments when I heard some beautiful notes, but I heard a lot of pitch problems and one or two strained notes as well. I expect better from him, because he can do a lot better.

8. Scotty McCreery - John Michael Montgomery's "Letters from Home": I'm glad he chose a song that fit his music style. I've never been a fan of his, and while his voice wasn't that bad, I wasn't blown away. He might make it since he's the lone country singer, but he still needs to step it up.

9. Stefano Langone - Bruno Mars' "Just the Way You Are": There seems to be a pattern tonight, where many start out average then improve by the end. For Stefano, the start was not good, but I loved the last half (save for the cringe-worthy high note). Having said that, did this sound any different than the original?

10. Paul McDonald - Rod Stewart's "Maggie Mae": If I'm not mistaken, they only featured him last week. I wasn't on board then and I'm still not completely a fan. Maybe I still need to warm up to him. I hear a good voice, but I just don't know what to think yet.

11. Jacob Lusk - "A House is Not a Home": He can definitely sing, there's no doubt about that. And I'm sure he'll make it. But I'm trying to look ahead, and I don't see him making it big. He's talented, but that doesn't always equal record sales.

12. Casey Abrams - "I Put a Spell on You": Based on that performance, I wouldn't have known he was ill (for the most part). He brought his energy and put everything into that song. The last notes were all over the place, but it still kind of fit in with it all.

We knew that both Steven and Jennifer Lopez were going to be nicer than Simon Cowell, but I thought last night they were way too soft on the contestants. Randy Jackson was the only one on the panel that really told the truth and gave honest feedback. I agreed with Randy most of the time, surprisingly.

Favorite Performances: James Durbin / Casey Abrams

My Votes: James Durbin - 20 votes

     [I decided not to vote online; I figured that I could vote by phone faster than doing it online. Maybe later on I'll include online voting as well]

Top 12 Predictions (5 will advance):

James Durbin

Casey Abrams

Paul McDonald

Scotty McCreery

Jacob Lusk

When I first wrote down a list of those who have a chance of making it into the Top 12, I included Brett and Robbie as well. I have logical reasons why those two will stay in (just read my comments on them above), but I ultimately cut them when you look at those who stepped it up and provided the best performances of the night. That leads you to the list of five names above. There's always the judges Wild Card picks, so even if some are eliminated, there's always the chance that the judges will keep them.

Instead of having a separate page on the main T.W.O. site for the links to the American Idol performances on iTunes, I was planning on just linking to them here in my Idol-Talk blogs. But it looks like there's nothing up on iTunes yet. If they become available, I will update this entry with the links.

Now that the guys have performed, the Top 12 girls will take to the stage tonight (8-9:30pm). See ya then...

Oscars: My Predictions vs. Winners

The 83rd Annual Academy Awards were held this past Sunday, and I seem to be on a bit of a roll lately.  First, I only miss four categories at the Golden Globes last month (84% correct).  And surprisingly, that success rolled over to this week, when I only missed five, resulting in 79% correct.

Here's the list of winners along with my predictions:

Best Picture:
The King's Speech
My Prediction:
The Social Network (-)

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
My Prediction:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech (+)

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
My Prediction:
Christian Bale, The Fighter (+)

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
My Prediction:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan (+)

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
My Prediction:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter (+)

Best Animated Film:
Toy Story 3
My Prediction:
Toy Story 3 (+)

Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland
My Prediction:
Alice in Wonderland (+)

Best Cinematography:
Inception
My Prediction:
True Grit (-)

Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland
My Prediction:
Alice in Wonderland (+)

Best Director:
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
My Prediction:
David Fincher, The Social Network (-)

Best Documentary:
Inside Job
My Prediction:
Inside Job (+)

Best Documentary Short:
Strangers No More
My Prediction:
Strangers No More (+)

Best Editing:
The Social Network
My Prediction:
The Social Network (+)

Best Foreign Language Film:
In a Better World (Denmark)
My Prediction:
In a Better World (Denmark) (+)

Best Makeup:
The Wolfman
My Prediction:
The Wolfman (+)

Best Score:
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
My Prediction:
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross (+)

Best Song:
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
My Prediction:
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3 (+)

Best Animated Short:
The Lost Thing
My Prediction:
Day & Night (-)

Best Live-Action Short:
God of Love
My Prediction:
Na Wewe (-)

Best Sound Editing:
Inception
My Prediction:
Inception (+)

Best Sound Mixing:
Inception
My Prediction:
Inception (+)

Best Visual Effects:
Inception
My Prediction:
Inception (+)

Best Original Screenplay:
The King's Speech, David Seidler
My Prediction:
The King's Speech, David Seidler (+)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin
My Prediction:
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin (+)

I got 19 of the 24 categories correct, missing only five (79% correct).

I was trying to think of why I'm doing better this year with my predictions.  And while I always have looked at what others are saying, I have done a lot more research this year, not only looking at what other websites are predicting, but thinking about what is in each film that could warrant a win, watching clips from some of the smaller categories (Best Animated Short, Best Live-Action Short), reading summaries of the documentaries, and listening to the nominated songs.  I usually do a lot of that already, but I focused more and analyzed the environment closer than I may usually have done. Next stop - the Emmy's!

You can view the full list of nominees, winners, and my predictions on T.W.O.'s Oscars page.

T.W.O: Oscar Predictions

Tonight ABC will air the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, beginning at 8:30pm ET/5:30pm PT. Last night, I finalized my Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. Below are my predictions, and check out T.W.O.'s Oscars page for a full list of all the nominees.

Source: gaelick.com

T.W.O.'s Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture:
The Social Network

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Best Animated Film:
Toy Story 3

Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland

Best Cinematography:
True Grit

Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Documentary:
Inside Job

Best Documentary Short:
Strangers No More

Best Editing:
The Social Network

Best Foreign Language Film:
In a Better World (Denmark)

Best Makeup:
The Wolfman

Best Score:
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

Best Song:
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3

Best Animated Short:
Day & Night

Best Live-Action Short:
Na Wewe

Best Sound Editing:
Inception

Best Sound Mixing:
Inception

Best Visual Effects:
Inception

Best Original Screenplay:
The King's Speech, David Seidler

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin

I decided to do a little research into the Best Picture category and see which of this year's nominated films has the best chance to win. For this research, I looked at the Golden Globe Best Picture (Drama and Musical/Comedy) winners and Oscar Best Picture winners of the last ten years (2001-2010). Exactly half of the Oscar winners also won in the same category for the Golden Globes. The reason why I did this was because I wanted to see if The Social Network had a chance of winning, since it won the Globe last month. Even though momentum at the moment is with The King's Speech, based on recent history, Network has a 50% chance of winning.

Next, I focused exclusively on the Oscar winners; more specifically, I looked at the content and topics of these films; again, this was to see which could come out on top between The Social Network and The King's Speech. The Academy tends to prefer movies along the lines of Speech, which everyone is predicting will win (besides the fact that it also won some important awards recently).

For the most part, I do base my prediction decisions on who has the best chance at winning, though once in a while my personal picks override it. Last year, I chose Avatar over The Hurt Locker for Best Picture, even though it was pretty obvious that the Academy would prefer the Iraq war film over the mega blockbuster.

If I was being smart here, I would obviously choose Speech. However, my personal pick is once again overriding it. It's probably because, of the two, I've only seen Network. If this was a perfect world, the race would be between Network and Toy Story 3 (the two best movies of 2010), but that's not feasible when you look at what the voting members go for. So, while my Best Picture prediction isn't exactly logical, I'm going to be laughing (well, maybe not; I'll probably be in shock) if Network does indeed win. And if Speech wins, as it most likely will, I'll still be fine with the choice.

At last month's Golden Globe Awards, I got 84% of my predictions correct (only missing four), which I'm sure is the best I have ever done at the three major award shows (Emmys, Globes, Oscars); I usually never get above 50%. I hope my luck there will drag over to tonight's awards and be at least above 50%.

Once the winners have been announced, I will be writing up a follow-up entry comparing my predictions to the eventual winners.

American Idol Scorecards - Top 24

For those of you who like to keep track of what songs the contestants sing and how well they perform, I am putting online American Idol Scorecards. I first started using scorecards back in season 4 when the American Idol Magazine began. After the magazine ended, I created my own, in a similar fashion to the ones found in the mag, altering them slightly to fit my preference. Over the years, I have continued to make changes to them to suit what I want to use them for.

I'm not sure how many other people do this as well, but I thought I would put online the scorecards I created for anyone to download, print, and use as they wish:

Idol 10: Top 24 (Boys)

Idol 10: Top 24 (Girls)

The above links take you to Google Docs. I suggest downloading them in their original file so as to make sure the format remains the same (usually by clicking on 'File' and 'Download original'); you will know the formatting is correct if you see the headings (Vocal Ability, Song Choice, etc) on their sides In a vertical fashion.

There is room for you to write in the contestant's names, song titles, comments, and give each performance a rating based on four categories (the point system in the document is what I began using last year; change them as you see fit). At the bottom, you will see space to write in the theme, who you vote for and how much, your predictions, and who ends up either advancing or getting eliminated.

So far, I only have the scorecards up for the Top 24 (next week). Let me know if you want me to continue putting these online and I will.